Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 167.798515 202.566390 245.355924 302.816158 379.419058 4.802213e+02 6.267739e+02
2025-04-13 123.531064 161.961430 215.028190 296.520900 424.151855 6.274093e+02 1.002251e+03
2025-04-20 106.632698 148.932859 212.888327 322.735428 521.381470 9.020823e+02 1.811133e+03
2025-04-27 94.631766 138.787295 210.509623 345.667689 623.023692 1.256979e+03 3.254288e+03
2025-05-04 85.043649 129.707917 206.634895 363.490788 723.960466 1.700703e+03 5.873550e+03
2025-05-11 76.700260 120.740653 200.327779 373.822052 814.699706 2.219922e+03 1.060879e+04
2025-05-18 69.273354 111.883635 191.990901 376.770009 889.812913 2.795664e+03 1.923243e+04
2025-05-25 62.319279 102.688413 180.986884 370.024565 935.254006 3.341717e+03 3.385516e+04
2025-06-01 56.231014 94.191057 169.742089 359.300996 963.776447 3.881058e+03 6.020419e+04
2025-06-08 51.055132 86.733665 159.344332 347.781860 984.570541 4.446429e+03 1.126262e+05
2025-06-15 49.948392 87.039402 165.657747 382.942472 1204.399272 6.933928e+03 7.831569e+05
2025-06-22 46.821131 82.848073 161.122668 386.095845 1300.696337 8.913357e+03 7.267051e+06
2025-06-29 44.555631 80.321193 160.422803 402.214088 1482.361505 1.304120e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 41.295698 75.316685 152.983603 394.921063 1545.550622 1.633099e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 40.535932 75.594246 158.637380 433.849293 1922.009746 3.119264e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 39.502933 75.120598 162.298309 467.991530 2338.322574 6.268402e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 38.207313 73.877574 163.684399 494.682166 2766.065457 1.321957e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 36.629293 71.784158 162.349065 510.226666 3147.677653 2.833266e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 34.858873 69.036651 158.692207 514.672731 3447.286122 6.067309e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 32.852835 65.521650 152.264819 504.510255 3579.926396 1.134185e+06 NaN
2025-08-24 30.876227 61.902582 145.036470 488.406108 3623.876332 1.998875e+06 NaN
2025-08-31 29.048912 58.496088 138.005881 471.179431 3633.927904 3.591679e+06 NaN
2025-09-07 29.004356 59.501912 144.574657 523.994688 4816.600697 9.543680e+10 NaN